Week 1 SEC Primer: Georgia and Clemson come in hot atop a loaded opening-weekend slate (2024)

Breaking down Week 1’s SEC slate, all in one place.

Game of the Week: Clemson vs. Georgia (-13.5 via FanDuel in Atlanta)

The stakes

Look, it’s a long year. The longest ever, actually, spanning nearly 5 full months. They’re not handing out Playoff tickets on Labor Day, right? Isn’t Opening Day(-ish) a little soon for Playoff Implications?

Folks, it’s never too soon for Playoff Implications.

Yes, the expanded 12-team CFP format takes some of the sting out of an opening-day loss, which has never been a strictly make-or-break affair for teams with national ambitions as much as it has been a tone-setter for the rest of the season, anyway. This year, that’s more true than ever. Not only can the loser Saturday still make the cut but because first-round byes in the new format are reserved for conference champions, the outcome won’t have any bearing on either team’s pursuit of 1 the top 4 seeds either way. No doors are opening or closing as a result of the first game.

Still, some doors might remain more open than others.

For Clemson, especially, it’s a test of whether an at-large bid remains within the realm of possibility for this team, or if the Tigers’ only viable path is through the ACC title. Florida State’s Week Zero loss to Georgia Tech in Ireland did put Clemson back in the driver’s seat in the conference. But an upset over the nation’s No. 1 team would have enormous implications, not the least of which would be proving that Clemson is still a program capable of winning these types of games — the Tigers haven’t beaten an opponent ranked higher than 10th in the AP poll since 2020, Trevor Lawrence’s last year as the starting quarterback.

Reporters might even be compelled to declare a season-long moratorium on asking Dabo Swinney about his rigid opposition to the transfer portal. (Well, for a few weeks, anyway.) Practically speaking it would also ease the margin for error in the conference standings by preserving an at-large route. With a loss on Saturday, that route almost certainly does not exist.

Georgia doesn’t have much more breathing room. The Dawgs are used to spending entire months of the regular season in cruise control, but that will not be the case this year against what is easily the most booby-trapped schedule of Kirby Smart‘s tenure. Beyond Clemson, UGA is facing road top-10 tests at Alabama, Texas and Ole Miss, plus a November date against Tennessee. How many wins against that gauntlet can Georgia afford to take for granted? Blow the opener as a double-digit favorite, and suddenly the answer is none.

The stat: 9.8 yards

That was Clemson QB Cade Klubnik‘s average yards per completion in 2023 — not per attempt, but per completion — good for 102nd nationally and dead last among qualifying passers in the ACC. For context, that’s a full yard below what his predecessor, DJ Uiagalelei, managed over the previous 2 seasons (10.9 ypc) in what was widely acknowledged to be a disappointing turn in one of the sport’s most high-profile positions.

Unless you are unusually attuned to Clemson football, the fact that you probably didn’t hear nearly as much about last year’s low-wattage attack as you did the previous 2 is a sign of just how far the bar has dropped. Is this just what Clemson’s offense is now? The post-pandemic malaise has endured across 3 seasons, 3 offensive coordinators and a pair of 5-star quarterbacks with very different skill sets, with no end in sight.

The Tigers averaged a pedestrian 23.6 points per game in ACC play in 2023, a 13-point drop from 2022 and a 21-point drop from their last Playoff appearance in 2020. The teams that played for the CFP title in 2018 and ’19 both averaged roughly twice that number.

If it seems unfair to compare to the current Tigers to the heyday of the Trevor Lawrence years, well, yeah. Exactly. It’s not all about the QB: Altogether, Clemson has had just 3 offensive players at any position taken in the past 3 drafts, none of them higher than the 4th round. Barring a surprise, that trend will continue in 2025. The drop-off at receiver, especially, is inseparable from the frustration behind center. After a decade-long run of next-level wideouts, Clemson hasn’t an individual player crack the top 15 in the ACC in receiving yards in any of the past 3 seasons. The leading target in 2023, true freshman Tyler Brown, ranked 24th in the conference with 531 yards on 10.2 per catch; the resident veteran of the group, junior Antonio Williams, has averaged just 10.6 yards over the past 2 years.

The verdict is still out on Klubnik, the consensus No. 1 quarterback in the 2022 recruiting class, who could always be due for a leap in his second year as a starter. (He is only a rising junior, after all.) But if there’s anyone in the surrounding cast who makes Georgia’s secondary sweat, let’s just say he’s had one heck of an offseason.

The big question: Does Georgia have a dominant individual presence?

The Dawgs boast an abundance of depth at nearly every position, as always, but no one who singlehandedly moves the needle on his own. Who are the dudes? The gotta-have-it receiver now that Brock Bowers is gone? The unblockable interior force a la Jalen Carter? The one-on-one nightmare? The feared pass rusher? There’s a surplus of candidates, but even the headliners are more “first among equals” in a loaded rotation than true stars.

That’s not necessarily a deal-breaker in their bid to go all the way. Under Kirby Smart, Georgia has never put much emphasis on individual star power on either side of the ball, sharing touches liberally on offense and subbing heavily on defense. Incredibly, UGA has not had a first-team All-SEC quarterback, running back or wide receiver on Smart’s watch; over the past 4 years, only 1 player at any those positions has even cracked the second team (Ladd McConkey in 2022; skills aside, Brock Bowers was listed as a tight end, remember). Defensively, no Smart-era defender has recorded more than 4 interceptions or 8.5 sacks in a given season, or 100+ tackles since 2017. They’re just not on the field long enough.

At the same time, though, there’s no denying that Georgia’s success relies on a steady pipeline of dudes: Smart claims 10 consensus All-Americans (8 of them on defense) and 17 first-round picks. One of those All-Americans, junior safety Malaki Starks, is back for what will almost certainly be his final season on campus after recording 3 INTs as a sophom*ore. Incumbent QB and Heisman hopeful Carson Beck is clearly the face of the program, but Starks is arguably the team’s best player and most bankable first-rounder. He also plays a position where most of his best work occurs off-screen, where he’s typically dissuading opposing quarterbacks from even attempting to challenge him downfield. The next guy who frequently leaps off the screen is TBD.

The key matchup: Clemson OT Tristan Leigh vs. Georgia Edge Mykel Williams

One of leading candidates for a leap year is Williams, whose just-OK production over his first 2 seasons has not reflected his enormous potential. Part of the reason for that is his position — the same hand-in-the-dirt, stack-and-shed role previously manned by No. 1 overall pick Travon Walker — doesn’t lend itself to conventional box scores. (Walker, a borderline extraterrestrial athlete, had notoriously meager college production for a player who was even being considered for that expensive a pick.) But the pass rush was a sore point across the board last year, most obviously in the absence of an every-down edge threat opposite Williams who was capable of routinely putting opposing tackles in a blender.

In Year 3, the Dawgs are hoping Williams can assume that role himself. By all accounts, he’s spent much of his time in both spring and fall camps working at “Jack,” a stand-up outside linebacker role that allows him more freedom to pin back his ears. Against Clemson, the man between Williams and the quarterback will usually be Leigh, a former 5-star who took over as the starting left tackle in 2023 as a redshirt sophom*ore. At 6-6, 315 pounds, Leigh has the requisite size and then some; the rest remains a work in progress. PFF cited him for 24 QB pressures and 3 sacks allowed in ’23, including a particularly rough outing against Kentucky in the Gator Bowl. Regardless, this is one of those matchups that scouts will pore over with a fine-toothed comb. Whichever guy plays up to his billing will have made himself some money.

The verdict …

It’s too pat to chalk up Clemson’s decline from the national elite to any single factor, but Dabo Swinney’s singular refusal to adapt to the free-transfer era is a pretty good shorthand for the state of affairs. Over the past 5 years, the only incoming transfers he has accepted were a pair of deep-reserve quarterbacks more focused on getting a head start on their transition into coaching careers than ever taking a live snap. He has deflected questions about his anti-transfer stance in various ways, most recently quipping, “most of the guys in the portal aren’t good enough to play for us.” True enough.

But some of the guys in the portal are good enough, as the likes of Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State and Texas, et al readily prove on an annual basis. There’s not a single hole on the depth chart that wouldn’t benefit from an upgrade? Five years ago, Swinney could plausibly contend that the answer was no. Today, even a quick glance at the depth chart will tell you that is no longer the case. (That is, if they bothered to publish a depth chart.)

But the fixation on the portal obscures the bigger picture, which is that in terms of raw talent Clemson remains as loaded as ever. Based on the current roster, the Tigers rank No. 5 in 247Sports’ Team Talent Composite and 10th according to the Blue-Chip Ratio. There are nearly as many 5-star recruits on hand (7) as the rest of the ACC combined (10), including an incumbent starting quarterback. You can’t argue that this team just doesn’t have the players to compete anymore.

The coaches, on the other hand, are another story.

The stability of Swinney’s staff during the glory years has yielded to churn, with exactly the results Tigers fans feared when several longtime assistants decided to finally say yes to becoming head coaches themselves. Both sides of the ball were under new coordinators in 2022, and the offense underwent another transition in ’23. The Tigers return both coordinators this year for the first time since 2021, the year the dynasty began to unravel. If there’s even a tiny fraction of a glimmer of hope left for getting those years back, this is the stage to prove it.
– – –
• Georgia 29 | Clemson 13

Notre Dame at Texas A&M (-2.5 via FanDuel)

If Notre Dame pulls the (minor) upset here, it has a more or less straight shot to the CFP against a favorable schedule that will likely favor the Irish in every remaining game. So let’s go ahead and get this out of the way: If Notre Dame is anywhere near the top of the polls in November — again, it could happen — brace yourself for a tortured take cycle over the fact that it’s ineligible for a first-round bye. (Remember, byes under the new CFP format are reserved solely for the 4 highest-ranked conference champs, no exceptions.) From Irish fans: It’s so unfair that we have to play this extra game! And from Irish haters: It’s so unfair that they don’t have to play a conference championship game to get in!

Just keep in mind that, obviously, both sides cancel each other out: Just like every other team in the country, advancing to the second round will require Notre Dame to beat a worthy opponent in the 13th game on its schedule. For the Irish, that game will just fall 2 weeks later, in the first round, than it will for teams that punch their ticket via conference title. A pretty neat little compromise, actually.

Thanks in advance to everyone on the Internet and in the CFB take industry at large for agreeing on this basic and uncontroversial point before it becomes A Thing.
– – –
• Notre Dame 24 |Texas A&M 20

LSU (-4.5 via FanDuel) vs. USC (in Las Vegas)

Tigers-Trojans is a compelling matchup in any context, but these particular outfits are so similar they could pull off the old Marx Brothers mirror routine. Start on the sidelines: Both teams are led by a third-year head coach who stunned the country by his decision to leave a “destination job” for his current gig. (Memorably, Brian Kelly and Lincoln Riley made their respective moves almost simultaneously in a 24-hour period in November 2021; they even share the same agent.)

On the field, both teams are replacing Heisman-winning quarterbacks who went with the No. 1 and No. 2 overall picks in the NFL Draft, as well as the vast majority of their surrounding casts at the skill positions. Behind those quarterbacks, both teams averaged 40+ points per game in 2023, ranking No. 1 and No. 3 nationally in scoring offense. Their replacements, LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier and USC’s Miller Moss, are both 4th-year juniors making their first regular-season starts after biding their time as underclassmen. And, yes, both teams are starting over from scratch on defense under new coordinators after fielding two of the most flammable units in America. The average total in an LSU/USC game vs. Power 5 opponents last year was 75 points.

Heisman-caliber quarterbacks don’t grow on trees, but given just how bad these defenses were in ’23, the attrition on offense is the least of the concerns on Sunday night on either side.

In fact, the most intriguing player on the field won’t be either of the new quarterbacks: It will be LSU linebacker/safety/edge Harold Perkins Jr., now in the money year of what has already been a fairly decorated college career.

While the rest of the defense collapsed around him last year, Perkins held up his end of the bargain, leading the team in solo tackles, tackles for loss, sacks, QB pressures and forced fumbles en route to a second-team All-SEC nod from league coaches. He was the Tigers’ best pass rusher, by far, and arguably their best player on the back end, too, posting a team-high 81.1 PFF coverage grade. (His lone interception on the year was a clutch one, initiating LSU’s comeback from a double-digit deficit to beat Missouri.) As advertised, there was nothing they could ask him to do that he couldn’t handle in a pinch.

Harold Perkins with a pass breakup and a sack on the next play. The dude is too good. pic.twitter.com/vE5xb0n4hG

— Ian Valentino (@NFLDraftStudy) September 16, 2023

The problem is that, while his free-range versatility is clearly an asset, Perkins has never really looked at home in any station on a full-time basis. One of the common complaints about how he was deployed in 2023 was that he was spending far too much time in coverage rather than rushing the passer, which, fair enough: Per PFF, Perkins only rushed about a third of the time on passing downs, dropping almost twice as often. That ratio is out of whack for a dude who is arguably the best pure speed rusher in the college game, especially given the total lack of juice from the rest of the edge-rushing rotation.

But the notion of parking him on the edge a la Micah Parsons comes with 2 big drawbacks. One is that, at 6-1, 225 pounds, Perkins is simply too light to hold up against the run opposite vastly larger offensive linemen. (To drive this point home, go back and watch the one game in ’23 in which he did line up almost exclusively as an every-down edge defender, against Ole Miss; the Rebels cranked out 317 rushing yards in one of the worst defensive performances in LSU history.) The other is that, when Perkins is rushing the passer, the Tigers leave themselves more vulnerable on the back end by sacrificing one of the few players — possibly the only player, really — they trust in coverage. Against an offense like USC’s, with its fleet of viable targets, that often feels like a no-win dilemma.

It doesn’t help that LSU neglected to upgrade the pass rush or the secondary via the portal. Instead, it’s relying on essentially the same lineup as last year, give or take a leap from 5-star sophom*ore Da’Shawn Womack up front. Sending much-maligned coordinator Matt House packing might count as addition by subtraction, but new DC Blake Baker faces the same basic challenge: No matter where he assigns his best player on any given snap, it comes at a cost elsewhere. Perkins can do it all, but not all at once.
– – –
LSU 37 | • USC 34

Miami (-2.5 via DraftKings) at Florida

This is a big game for Miami, which is poised to make its move after a couple deflating seasons in Mario Cristobal‘s first 2 years as head coach. The ‘Canes are groping toward relevancy the old-fashioned way, cultivating home-grown dudes like sophom*ores Francis Mauigoa and Rueben Bain Jr. while signing their second top-10 recruiting class in as many years; they also landed one of the portal’s most coveted wild cards, QB Cameron Ward. With Florida State’s Week Zero loss to Georgia Tech and (let’s be real) Clemson’s pending loss to Georgia, there is a definite opening for The U to assert itself as the early frontrunner in the ACC.

But make no mistake: Florida is desperate to win this game.

The implications of starting 0-1 against the nation’s most unforgiving schedule are grim. After Saturday, the Gators still have 7 more games against opponents ranked in the preseason AP poll, including the nightmare November gauntlet against Georgia, Texas, LSU, Ole Miss and Florida State in consecutive weeks.

Billy Napier, coming off back-to-back losing records in 2022-23, needs every win he can scrape together, by any means necessary. If there are 6 wins on this schedule, a visit from a still-sketchy Miami outfit in The Swamp has to be one of them. Otherwise, Napier may as well go ahead and start picking out his plot in the coaching graveyard next to the last three guys who had the job before him.
– – –
• Miami 31 | Florida 23

Western Kentucky at Alabama (-31.5 via DraftKings)

We’ll have plenty of time to size up the post-Saban Tide in coming weeks. For now, Kalen DeBoer has 6 quarters to make an impression before they literally name the field after the guy he’s replacing at halftime of next week’s game against South Florida. His job between now and then is strictly to make sure nothing happens on said field that turns anxious locals into an inflamed mob bent on coaxing Nick Saban out of retirement during the ceremony. The Hilltoppers must meet a grisly fate, in the name of maintaining public order.
– – –
• Alabama 43 | WKU 10

Colorado State at Texas (-31.5 via FanDuel)

Assuming Texas makes quick work of the Rams, it will be interesting to take stock of the pecking order among the Longhorns’ receivers ahead of next week’s trip to Michigan. All 4 of last year’s starters were drafted (including TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, a de facto wideout). Bama transfer Isaiah Bond and 5-star sophom*ore Johntay Cook have the makings of natural successors, but the depth chart is crowded and their chemistry with QB Quinn Ewers is a significant variable. UT would love to see a couple guys begin to separate from the pack ASAP.
– – –
Texas 44 | • Colorado State 17

Southern Miss at Kentucky (-27.5 via FanDuel)

It’s ancient history now, but the nadir of Mark Stoops‘ tenure at Kentucky arguably came in a season opener against Southern Miss, in 2016: The Golden Eagles stormed back from a 35-10 deficit to spring the upset, winning 44-35 behind future NFL journeyman QB Nick Mullens. At the time, that loss combined with a 45-7 debacle at Florida the following week looked the beginning of the end for Stoops, who’d yet to deliver a winning record in any of his first 3 seasons. Instead, the Wildcats rallied to finish the 2016 campaign 7-6, made the first of 8 straight (and counting) bowl appearances, and set Stoops on course to be the winningest and best-paid-by-far coach in school history.

Meanwhile, in the same span Southern Miss is 0-11 vs. Power 5 opponents, the past 7 of those losses coming by 20+ points. On Saturday, it will be USM’s Will Hall coaching for his job coming off a 3-9 flop in 2023, his third year as head coach. The Eagles lost their resident dude, diminutive RB Frank Gore Jr., who accounted for nearly 40% of the team’s total offense over those 3 seasons. The new quarterback, Florida State transfer Tate Rodemaker, should turn out to be an upgrade at a position that has sorely lacked stability, but the second coming of Nick Mullens he is not.
– – –
Kentucky 38 | • Southern Miss 13

Virginia Tech (-13.5 via DraftKings) at Vanderbilt

Virginia Tech’s rebuild under third-year coach Brent Pry is right on schedule: The Hokies finished 5-2 over the back half of 2023, matching their win total over Pry’s first 17 games in the last seven. Vanderbilt’s rebuild under fourth-year coach Clark Lea is, uh, not. The Commodores finished winless in SEC play in 2023 for the third time in the last four years, getting outscored by 20 points per game in the process. There is some distant hope that a new offensive coordinator, Tim Beck, and a new quarterback, Diego Pavia, can repeat their unlikely success at New Mexico State at the NMSU of the SEC. But in Vandy’s case, it’s hard to imagine what that would even look like at this point beyond slightly narrower margins of defeat.
– – –
• Virginia Tech 33 | Vanderbilt 17

Old Dominion at South Carolina (-20.5 via FanDuel)

This marks South Carolina fans’ first good look at their new quarterback, redshirt freshman LaNorris Sellers, who is certifiably huge (6-3/242), rocks a pair of rec specs under his helmet, and has looked the part so far in brief glimpses in garbage time and/or practice. Old Dominion is plainly outgunned by any SEC opponent that isn’t Vandy, but the Monarchs aren’t exactly target practice. All-America linebacker Jason Henderson is a proven disruptor and sounds like he’s full-speed ahead to play on a surgically reconstructed knee that ended his season late in 2023.
– – –
• South Carolina 36 | Old Dominion 14

Temple at Oklahoma (-42 via DraftKings)

Ball security is a concern for the Sooners’ new quarterback, sophom*ore Jackson Arnold, who served up three interceptions last December in his first career start in the Alamo Bowl. In that sense — and most others — Temple is one of the best tune-up opponents he could face. The Owls had just three interceptions in 2023 across the entire season, tied with Florida for fewest in the country. Meanwhile, they somehow managed to recover only two fumbles, which was also the fewest in the country. The resulting minus-20 turnover margin for the year was, you guessed it, the worst in the country. If the ball is at risk against this group at any point with the starters in the game, it might be time to worry.
– – –
• Oklahoma 51 |Temple 7

Furman at Olę Miss (-42.5 via FanDuel)

Oh my, they’re putting point spreads on the FCS body bag games now. Of course these typically come down to just how willing the host is (or is not) to run up the score. If you enjoy the rush of sweating out whether Ole Miss’ walk-on string will stiffen up to prevent a garbage-time, spread-covering touchdown drive that spans the final eight minutes of the fourth quarter, by all means…
– – –
Ole Miss 52 | • Furman 13

Chattanooga at Tennessee (-38.5 via FanDuel)

If you’re wondering, Tennessee and Chattanooga have played 41 times — it was an annual date in the 1950s and ’60s — with the Mocs winning twice: First in 1905, and most recently in 1958. The 1958 Vols were an enigma, going 3-2 vs. ranked opponents and 1-4 vs. everybody else. (The lone win in the “everybody else” column coming against Alabama, naturally.) Has any other team ever beaten Alabama and lost to Chattanooga in the same season? A fun question for someone (not me) to look into.
– – –
• Tennessee 48 | Chattanooga 7

Murray State at Missouri (-48.5 via FanDuel)

This game kicks off the season on the SEC Network on Thursday night. Give us one viral highlight of Luther Burden III doing something cool at the expense of future gym teachers and then let him go sign autographs.
– – –
Missouri 49 | • Murray State 6

Alabama A&M at Auburn (-46.5 via FanDuel)

Give us 2 viral highlights of Auburn freshman WR Cam Coleman doing something cool, then let him go post on Instagram.
– – –
• Auburn 54 | Alabama A&M 3

Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Arkansas (-50.5 via FanDuel)

Arkansas-Pine Bluff was one of the worst outfits in all of Division I last year, finishing 2-9 with both of its wins coming by a single point and 7 of its 9 losses coming by at least 24 points. Kenneth Massey ratedthe Golden Lions 124th out of 128 teams in the FCS. Can they hang within 50 of the Razorbacks? We’re all rooting for them.
– – –
• Arkansas 56 | Arkansas Pine-Bluff 0

Eastern Kentucky at Mississippi State (-24.5 FanDuel)

The oddsmakers don’t think much of the rebuilding Bulldogs, making them mere 24.5-point favorites over an EKU team that finished 5-6 last year in the United Athletic Conference. I don’t think much of the Bulldogs once they get into SEC play, either, but they’ll be out for blood in their first game under Jeff Lebby — one of the very few on the schedule in which they’re actually likely to draw it.
– – –

• Miss. State 42 | EKU 13